May 10
As of that date there were a total of 80,000 deaths in the USA.
My post on that date included the following:
“Watch the daily numbers of deaths. If the plateau remains constant, with 1,800 deaths per day, then by June 1 (23 days) we will have an additional 41,000 deaths, for a total of 120,000; and by June 30 (52 days from now) we will have an additional 53,000 deaths, for a total of around 170,000. If the plateau begins to decline, we will see less, if the “opening up” increases the total, as the CDC has been warning may result in a rate of up to 3,000 deaths per day by June 1, we may see as many as a total of 210,000 deaths.”
The data is now in for June 1. The total deaths now have reached 107,000. This is an increase of 27,000 deaths over the ensuing 22 days. However, it is LESS than the 120,000 deaths that I had suggested would occur if the rates had plateaued.
The number represents an average deaths per day of 1,200 rather than the 1,800 we had been seeing. This is a decrease of about one third.
This is very good news.
I have nothing invested neither politically nor intellectually in seeing large numbers of deaths. As I said on May 10, a number less than 120,000 would indicate a national decrease in the rate of deaths; this is what we have seen. I am thrilled that my prediction was wrong.
The critical period will be the next month as we begin to enter the post-lag period after reopening. I hope that my predictions here will also be wrong, and we won’t see 53,000 deaths during June.
I will keep you posted.