As we all get out the bowls of snacks at 8 pm tonight to settle down and watch a civilization get obliterated on live TV, we might want to consider what a “deal” to avoid it would have looked like. More importantly, we should ask the question, “Would you make a deal with Donald Trump?”
Mr. Trump has a long history of ignoring deals.
What I will enumerate below is just some historical realities. I am not saying that Iran is a good place, or that their leaders are fine people. The theocracy of Iran has been terrible for world peace and for the basic human rights of the people of Iran. On the other hand, Persia/Iran has been one of the great civilizations in world history.
I understand that Israel and many in this country see Iran as a place of such evil, that it needs to be destroyed, or at least it needs to have the government removed and a more “world-friendly” government installed, no matter whether the voters in Iran want that change or not. However, there does not seem to be any strategy detailed by the U.S. Government on how that would occur. There does seem to have been a “hope” that if the U.S. and Israel were to eliminate the top officials, that the population would rise up and take over the country. That has not happened. The only alternative for conquering the country is by a huge land invasion, defeat of the armies, and installation of a colonial administration.
I would also point out that the current regime has been in place for nearly a half a century, more than a full generation. I have asked those who supported the Israel actions in Gaza whether the people of Gaza and the West Bank could be integrated into Israeli society. The answer was almost always, “the people have been brain-washed for years to hate Israel, and they cannot be changed.” Doesn’t the same argument then hold for Iran? Have they also been “brain-washed” for years to hate Israel and the United States? And if that is also true, then how can we expect them to suddenly embrace our destruction of their country as some sort of liberation?
The first postal system was created in Persia.
Banking systems with checks were pioneered in Persia.
Iran gave us Algebra, algorithms, and the refinement of trigonometry.
They invented the modern form of brick.
They pioneered in water waste management systems.
They created the Canon of Medicine, a text that was used for centuries in teaching hospitals throughout Europe.
They made huge contributions to Art, Culture, Architecture, and Music.
I don’t list these things to excuse the current Iranian regime. I list them to remind us that the people of Iran have a long and rich intellectual history. They are not savages and do not deserve to be sent “back to the Stone Ages.”
It is specifically because the Iranians are highly intelligent and mature, that they have the insight to see the problems with making a deal with Mr. Trump.
Here are some highlights that the Iranians already understand:
Start with his agreement with NYC to get permission to build the Trump Tower, as long as Mr. Trump preserved the bas relief sculptures, and the decorative iron gate on the front of the Bonwit Teller building that he was going to raze to make room for the new tower. He agreed to donate them to the Metropolitan Museum. Oops, he tore down the sculptures one night and they broke into a thousand pieces, and the gate was “lost”.
Same thing with the East Wing of the White House that he promised would “not be touched” and that there would be a separation between it and the new ballroom. Oops, tore that down too.
Ask the vendors who had contracts with him and then were told that they were only getting paid pennies on the dollars owed, and that they could opt to sue him. And if they did he would declare bankruptcy, and they would get less than he was offering them.
Ask the members of the House of Representatives who were told that either they vote to support his bill, or he would primary them. They agreed, but the deal only lasted 24 hours until he made the exact same threat over the next bill.
He pulled out of the JCPOA, effectively granting Iran the permission to go ahead and build a nuclear bomb, since they were no longer bound by that agreement and no longer had any inspectors in country to monitor them.
He pulled out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. It didn’t matter that the US had signed it.
He pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in his first week in office.
He unilaterally cancelled NAFTA, and then renegotiated it as the USMCA, which he broke by imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada in direct contradiction to the agreement HE HAD NEGOTIATED.
He withdrew from the Cold-war era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, no matter that it had been signed by the US.
He exited the UN Human Rights Council and UNESCO.
He withdrew from the World Health Organization.
He withdrew from the UN Relief and Works Agency.
He withdrew from the Global Compact on Migration.
He worked out “deals” with Europe and China on tariffs, agreeing to set firm tariffs on both sides, and then within weeks tacked on new tariffs because those countries were trading with Iran or doing something else that he wanted to change.
And today, he terminated agreements with academic institutions aimed at upholding protections for transgender students, never mind that those agreements had been negotiated and approved.
There is and has always been a thread running through Mr. Trump’s deals. Deals are used to hold the other party responsible but are scrapped when they no longer benefit Mr. Trump. And once he finds a lever that you will respond to, he uses it over and over again.
What kind of “deal” could Iran make with Mr. Trump?
“Open the Straits of Hormuz” or else we blow everything in your country up.
And once the Straits are open, then “let Mr. Trump install a new leader”, or we blow everything in your country up.
And after we install the new leader, “you give us the revenue from your oil to reimburse us for the costs of the war” or we blow everything in your country up.
And after we get the share of the revenue, “give us ownership of half of your oil fields”, or we blow everything in your country up.
How can you negotiate any deal that would have clear obligations on BOTH sides? I would think the Iranians understand this. The rest of the world does too.