Here is my monthly report on where we are, and where we are going.
The graph below is updated now to include January. As everyone will have suspected, the deaths have risen this month.
There are 2 impressions from the chart.
First, although January was the worst month yet for deaths (over 20% greater the next highest month), there appears to have been a peak in the middle of the month and numbers seem go be coming down. This is probably due to the time having passed after Thanksgiving, Xmas and New Year’s combined with a potential new focus on health precautions related to the new information being provided by the medical experts in the new administration.
I hope to be able to report that these numbers continue to decline during February.
I do not think the vaccination program that began in late December will have had any effect on these numbers yet. You really need to have at least 4 weeks pass after the first vaccination before you can begin to see any effect, and with only 20 million people vaccinated, the numbers just aren’t large enough yet.
Second, the hospitalization rates MAY be decreasing when compared to deaths. This would be important, but it is far too early to make those assessments.
