HERE COMES THE EPSILON VARIANT

COVID 19, Healthcare

The thing about Science is that it is true whether your believe it or not.

 (A heads up:  No. There is no Epsilon variant circulating.)

 The single most important thing about those people refusing vaccinations is that not that they are taking their own risk of infection, hospitalization and/or death; nor it is that they believe that those people who are already vaccinated shouldn’t care about them anyway because they are protected.  The most important thing is that those people who are unvaccinated are part of a population stewpot that is cultivating new variants.

COVID-19 viruses have a predictable and constant mutation rate, 1 base-pair per 100,000 replications.  That rate has not changed over the past year and will not change over the next year.  The British variant, the Brazil variant, the South African variant, etc., are simply normal, predicted changes that have occurred.

As each variant emerges, those that have an evolutionary advantage over the previous versions, primarily in its ability to transmit from one person to another, begin to dominate the infected population.  And it is from that new variant that new variants arise.

To this point we have been very fortunate.  The new vaccines have been unexpectedly successful and have continued to demonstrate protection from arising variants.  But we are beginning to see some chinks in the armor of vaccination.  

 

Remember that there are two metrics regarding vaccines.  The first is the ability to protect against becoming infected with a virus.  The second is the ability to protect against severe disease.  Initial studies of the current vaccines have shown high marks in both of these metrics.   However, we are now seeing some reduction in effectiveness with the circulating Delta variant.  The ability to protect against infection has significantly decreased although the ability to protect against severe disease has remained high.

We can expect that future variants that arise from the Delta variant, predictably named the Epsilon variant, will see further erosion in the protection conferred by vaccination with existing vaccines.   That is one reason that Pfizer is developing a Delta Booster.  The hope is that boosters directed at the Delta variant will be more effective against the upcoming Epsilon variant than the prior vaccines.

Those people who have not been vaccinated yet are not only risking their own health, they are providing the petri dish in which the Delta variant can mutate into the Epsilon variant, and we have no idea whether any of us who have already been vaccinated against prior viruses will continue to be protected from the new variants.

Those who are not vaccinated are endangering the lives of every single person in this country.  This is irresponsible behavior. 

We eliminated smallpox by mandating vaccination.

We eliminated polio by mandating vaccination.

We eliminated tetanus by mandating vaccination.

We eliminated diphtheria by mandating vaccination.

 

Vaccines work.  The current generation of vaccines is the safest and most effective ever developed.

 

“When failure comes, there are a series of questions we have to ask ourselves: ‘Which actions of mine caused this? What could I have done differently? What will I do when and if it happens again?’ Note something important about these three questions: They’re all inwardly focused. They’re all about personal responsibility. They all accept and face circumstances.”  Dan Crenshaw (R. TX)