Today marks some progress in the Iran War. It is not settled. It is not won. The ceasefire is now in place according to the understandings of both Iran and the U.S. Here is what has happened:
The Iranian Foreign Minister posted this morning, “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
This “coordinated route” refers to a very specific, designated shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz that REQUIRES commercial vessels to pass through an Iranian checkpoint for safe passage. The “opening” DOES NOT state that the $2 million tolls have been rolled back.
This “opening” is not guaranteed to remain once the ceasefire period ends, or if Israel renews its attacks on Lebanon.
This can be seen as a very positive sign that negotiations MAY lead to a more comprehensive peace. Let us pray that this is so. If it does result in peace, then Iran will be reconstituted to where it was in January of this year except that its Navy and Air Force have been eliminated, and its missile capabilities degraded. The new Ayatollah remains in power with the theocracy intact.
Mr. Trump posted, “THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE.”
I reiterate the point from my last post. The U.S. committed an act of war during a ceasefire, and this underscores the difficulty in believing Mr. Trump in any deal.
Some of you may have argued that the U.S. naval blockade was instituted as a response to the fact that Iran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz at the onset of the ceasefire and that the blockade was in response to that. None of us know what the ceasefire agreement looked like since we have not seen it. The U.S. says that it required the Iranians to open the Strait; the Iranians say that the ceasefire required a ceasefire in Lebanon as well. Whichever is true, the President of the United States has now admitted that the U.S. blockade of the Strait for all ships going to or coming from Iranian ports was NOT a response to the Iranian actions, but an independent military action. For, if it was a negotiating tool, it would have been lifted today.
Rumors circulating this morning say that the “3-page Agreement” will do at least two things:
1. Iran will allow international teams to remove the 900 lbs. of enriched Uranium buried under the rubble in Isfahan.
If, as Mr. Trump has claimed, that site was “obliterated” last June, and the uranium is now “dust”, it seems to me that Iran never really had the technology to safely excavate that site since it is quite likely that any storage containers or facilities were severely damaged or destroyed by the missile attacks that entered the area through the chimneys, and exploded deep underground. It sounds, at least on the surface, that any removal process will be monumental and lethally treacherous.
2. Iran will get at least $20 billion from the U.S. from funds frozen.
Now, for this issue, I need to hear from those who have attacked the JCPOA for the last 8 years. You have accused the Obama administration of giving Iran money from the U.S. The amount of money “given” to Iran, according to estimates from the U.S. Treasury was $50 billion, but it too was “unfrozen” from accounts paid in by foreign governments for Iranian oil. If you now support the Trump administration for giving $20 billion to Iran because it is coming from “frozen” assets, you need to ALSO admit that the money that came to Iran as a result of the JCPOA came from EXACTLY the same sources. You can’t have it both ways.
Let us see what the next week brings. It would seem likely that Mr. Trump will extend the deadline of the ceasefire due to “productive negotiations”. It is not as likely that a ceasefire will continue in Lebanon as Israel now occupies almost 15% of Lebanese territory and wants to push further to attack Hezbollah. Most sovereign countries do not sit idly by while a neighboring regime annexes 15% of their country. Whether Israel is right or wrong, I don’t see Lebanon ceding its sovereignty.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore the status quo that existed before the Iran War began would be wonderful. At this point it has not happened.
Iran continues to require any ships to pass through their checkpoint, a checkpoint that did not exist 3 months ago, and one that will most likely create a bottle neck and slow the traffic through the Strait to a fraction of the 100-200 ships per day that transited it in January.
The U.S. continues to blockade the Strait for all Iranian-bound, or Iranian-sourced ships.
Let us be realistic here. The Strait of Hormuz is not now “completely open and ready for business”.
Progress comes in small steps. We can celebrate a small step this morning. The journey will be far more arduous.