CAUTION: I have no information either from inside or outside sources that he is indeed infected. My comments here are based on a few observations only. We know that Mr. Pence’s Press Secretary has been tested positive; we know that Mr. Pence has self-isolated; we know that he has made no public appearance or video appearance in the past 2 days.
Why would we suspect that he might be infected? There are several reasons to look at this, unfortunately some are political, but some are scientific. Let’s see if we can separate those explanations.
POLITICAL
There is a general political impetus that would tend to keep something like this secret as long as possible. If there was an infection at the highest level of government, it might cause concerns for national security. Also, in an attempt to create a sense of control, the government might be concerned about undue panic created by such an event. Finally, it might counteract the current strategies for encouraging people to reenter the marketplace.
This particular administration may be following the same strategy that they used at the beginning of the pandemic, but that backfired.
This week Mr. Trump said the following:
“One person tested positive, surprisingly, because the previous day tested negative, and three people that were in contact, relative contact, who, I believe they’ve all tested totally negative.” (As in the early parts of February, this is an exaggeration; there were actually three people who tested positive, the President’s Valet, the VP’s Press Secretary and Ivanka Trump’s personal assistant.)
“The one who tested positive will be fine. It will be absolutely fine.” (The same as the repeated message in February)
“So, I think we’re really doing a very good job in watching it. And I think it’s very well-contained, actually.” (The same message delivered through February, March and the first weeks of April).
SCIENTIFIC
We have all heard some statistics about the infection; that at least 80% are asymptomatic; that symptoms don’t show up for between 5 and 14 days. The statistics that are far less well reported are very important when addressing something like attempting to determine if the VP has been infected.
These statistics relate to detection. The basic question is: “How long does it take after an individual has been infected until it is possible to detect virus in the blood, saliva or mucosal secretions?” and “How long does it take for virus to begin shedding from an infected patient?”
At least at this point the two questions run parallel. It seems that there is no virus detectable prior to infectious viruses being shed in a patient. This is reasonable. Think about the initial events in an infection. A person is exposed to virus and that virus is transferred to that person in a load sufficient to result in an infection. At the moment that the person is infected, the virus is present in extremely small amounts, amounts that are most likely undetectable by any current test. The virus attaches to a cell membrane and enters the cell. There now needs to be replication inside the cell and then exocytosis from the cell into the blood, and the virus will immediately bind to new cells and disappear from the blood.
With a new infection, there will be almost no detectable virus or RNA from the virus in the blood because any virus leaving one cell will find a new host nearby. Once a large proportion of cells in a local area have been infected, there will be an excess of virus in the blood compared to available cells to which they can bind. This will result in sufficient virus in the blood and secretions to identify through tests.
It turns out that the lag between initial infection and apparent virus shedding is about 3 days.
This is extremely important when looking at a contact trace. An infected individual will not be detectable until at least 2-3 days after the infection. Symptoms, if they appear will emerge several days after this point.
Considering VP Pence, if he had been infected by his Press Secretary this week, he may well test negative for the first couple of days before virus begins to show up in his blood, even after complete quarantining.