As many of you know, Amie and I bought a home on the east coast of Florida last year, and we are extremely lucky to be camped out here. One of the things I did not know anything about and have learned about since, is Palm trees. When you picture a Palm tree you visualize a tall trunk with fronds on the top. Unlike trees up north, the green fronds are only on the top. I never really thought about that until we started living here. So, what happens is as the tree grows it sprouts new fronds from the very tippy top of the tree. The oldest and largest fronds at the bottom of that green top begin to turn brown, dry out and die. Eventually they just fall off of the tree.
These things are not like pine needles or oak leaves, they are up to 4 or 5 feet in length and can weigh as much as 10 pounds or more!
Yesterday, Amie and I were outside in our courtyard, reading, when I heard a very loud “THUMP”. I looked over towards Amie to see that one of these large Palm fronds had fallen and just missed her. I realized that if that frond had fallen just 2” to the side, it could have seriously damaged the table, or even broken the coffee cup!
Anyway, it got me thinking about the corollary effects related to events such as this pandemic.
Here are two (one negative, one positive, although you will have to figure out which is which) that I think are worth mentioning:
FIRST
COMPLETING THE TAKEOVER BY AMAZON
Since 2010, the annual percentage of retail sales conducted online has increased from 6% to 16%. The trend is almost a straight line and projects to an eCommerce total of around 24% in 2025. I think we may see a significant acceleration in that trend line upward heading to even higher numbers more quickly than the current trend lines indicate.
We have all seen an evolution of our use of online shopping. Maybe we started by buying some kitchen appliance, or socks. Then we tried buying shoes, finding that sending them back if they didn’t fit or if we simply didn’t like them was easy and FREE! We tried buying other things, maybe golf clubs, or food or toothpaste.
Last week Amie and I bought a portable radio to use in our courtyard. It came with an electric cord, but without the C-cell batteries that would allow it to be used wirelessly. In the past, I would have gotten in the car, drove to the drug store, the big box store or the supermarket and gotten the batteries. But now, with “unessential” travel frowned upon, we simply ordered the batteries online. They arrived the next day in our mailbox; the price was great, and the shipping was free. Who knew that you could do that?
I am sure you have your own example. Over the 2 months or so that we are all self-isolating, all of us are probably getting packages delivered quite often, and we have learned that selection is better (you can choose, rather than have to buy the single item in the store), prices are better (at least you know BEFORE you get to the store and have to pay whatever they are charging), service is better (easy and free returns). This can only accelerate the migration from store front shopping to online shopping. For example, when the “all-clear” is sounded and you are allowed to go back out into the marketplace, do you think you might be, just a little bit, cautious about going into a clothing store, either stand-alone or in a mall, pick out an item to try on (which may have been tried on by one or more people earlier in the day), and try it on in a closet that has been used dozens of times that day and probably hasn’t been cleaned in a week? Might you be, again just a little bit, more moved to purchase the item online, packed in plastic to you and then to try it on in the safety of your own home before you decide whether to keep it or return it?
I don’t know if Main Street, or at least some of the stores will close or survive, but our experiences during this pandemic will absolutely affect the way we shop, and therefore, the way retail exists. Can you imagine the effects on the economy if a third of all retail is done online? This will affect employment, distribution, city and state tax revenues and traffic patterns. It may also mean a greater selection, a more open market to smaller manufacturers, more individuality through wider access and more competitive pricing.
SECOND
A TRUE TEST
This one is a real eye-opener. We are now creating a test that we could never have tried before, that we could not have ever even contemplated.
The global pandemic has and continues to affect a lot of things around the world. For example, closing stores, theatres, gyms, casinos, malls and schools saves a hell of lot of electricity. Reduced air travel, train travel, driving your own automobile, etc., also reduces a lot of fuel consumption. The net effect is that the world is trying an experiment. What happens to the climate if Man suddenly and significantly reduces the amount of fossil fuel combusted, thereby reducing the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. Satellite photos have already shown a marked visual decrease in smog and pollution.
We now have the absolute experiment going on. Will the reduction in greenhouse gases generated by human activity affect the earth? Will we see any change in the global temperature as a result of several months of reduced pollution? Algae blooms? Weather patterns?
Perhaps all of us can gain a better understanding of our effects on the environment through this pandemic event.