As of now, there is LOW RISK for Americans to acquire Bird Flu (H5N1 Influenza).
This DOES NOT mean that the virus is NOT dangerous; it DOES NOT mean that the spread is under control; it DOES NOT mean that there should be no concerns.
NO.
Low risk, in this parlance means that that the current strain of virus is not directly transmissible from one human to another, and therefore, there is currently a low risk of contracting Bird Flu. Since 2023 there have only been less than 35 cases reported in this country, although the vast majority have occurred in the last 12 months (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/h5n1-flu-reported-cases?time=2022-01-01..latest).
HERE IS THE CONCERN
The spread of Bird Flu in this country is increasing in volume.
According to the American Veterinary Association, as of the end of 2024, the infection has been seen in all 50 states, in 623 commercial poultry flocks and 753 backyard flocks. This has resulted in the exsanguination of 125 million chickens and turkeys. As viral infections expand, and they will, the costs to the industry of managing this virus along with the decrease in the size of flocks will increase the prices of poultry and eggs. This will push increases in the prices of chicken, duck and turkey prices in restaurants, the prices of cakes and other baked goods, the costs of pastas, mayonnaise and breakfast foods.
There are almost 1,000 herds of cattle that have been infected, and the virus has been found in commercial farms for mink and goats. It has been found in over 10,000 migratory birds including Canadian Geese and Snow Geese, and in skunks, raccoons, bears, and domestic cats.
Currently there are no commercial pig farms that have been infected, although privately owned pigs have been infected and had to be euthanized. The fact that pigs CAN become infected indicates that it is solely a matter of time before the commercial swine populations also become reservoirs for the disease. Culling the swine populations will lead to increased prices of pork, ham and bacon.
As the infection spreads, so too have infections in humans. Over the past 3 years there have been only 66 reported cases of Bird Flu, although the majority have been detected in this country, and until recently none have been serious. Unfortunately, on January 6th of this year, a man in Louisianna died from a Bird Flu infection.
More troubling, to me, is that the virus recovered from the individual who succumbed to the virus showed some novel mutations. This MAY suggest that the virus mutates within an infected human, and those types of mutations MAY lead to a sufficient change in the virus to allow human-to-human transmission. The reason here is that mutations of the virus that occur in one human, and that have an ability to bind to human cells will have an evolutionary advantage in that individual over the original virus or other variants. Just think about a dozen new viruses circulating in the blood of a human. If one virus is better able to bind to a human cell in that individual, it will be more likely to dominate the infection in that person, and will replicate itself in much, much higher amounts than the original virus. It will then be most likely to be shed from that person and potentially infect other people.
The more infections in animals, the more likelihood that more humans will become infected though direct contact with infected animals.
The more infections in animals and humans, the more likely a strain will develop that will be able to be transmitted from one person to another.
When the virus acquires the ability to spread from human to human, we will have a very serious health hazard in this country
Factors that may increase the risk:
- A depression of surveillance due to the current cessation of scientific meetings and communication.
Without good data on where the infections are, where they are spreading and which flocks have been immunized or destroyed, we risk rapid acceleration of the timeline to epidemic. - A repression of vigilance for human-to-human infection due to suspended Scientific communications, funding, meetings and collaboration.
If we do not recognize a viral infection communicated from one person to another immediately, then the infection will spread and we will be in a situation similar to the outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2019. - A public suspicion of vaccines and a reluctance to become vaccinated to this virus when such vaccines are available.
It is true that Influenza vaccines are NOT 100% effective. They are LESS than 70% effective. It is also true that there ARE significant side effects to vaccination including Guillain-Barre syndrome, seizures, and narcolepsy as well as severe reactions in those that have egg allergies. These dangers are rare, but they do occur. It is very easy to focus on these rare events to warn against vaccination, while ignoring the benefits. - Many current influencers are recommending against vaccination.
I fear that the public’s fears will lead to a loud and noisy opposition to vaccination, particularly of their children. Social Media outrage, fanned by misinformation can force officials to back off from absolutely necessary public health measures.Let’s be clear. When children are left unvaccinated, and when they do get infected, as they will, they become the chief vectors for spreading disease. Confined spaces with large groups of people, as in schools, ballet classes, Karate classes, and indoor team sports are perfect environments for spreading a communicable disease. And when infected, they bring those infections home to infect the rest of the family.
- A public relations push to promote the use of unpasteurized “Raw” milk, and what I expect will be the normal product offshoots, like “Raw Butter”, “Raw Cream”, “Organic Cheese”, etc.
Not only will the expansion of “Raw” milk spread Bird Flu more rapidly, the use of it in households exposes house pets to the virus. These animals have already shown an ability to become infected. And the more house pets infected, the more virus will be shed in urban areas, infecting other domesticated and feral animals, and increasing the likelihood of allowing for a mutation that will result in human-to-human spread.
I fear that a Bird Flu epidemic is inevitable and that the social posture in the US today will make the dangers far more severe than they should be.
Note: we DO NOT have good medications to treat influenza. Tamiflu, if taken within 48 hours of infection can reduce hospitalizations by 63%. That is good, but not great. We can take medications to reduce fever and treat symptoms, but they are palliative, not curative. There is actually a theory circulating that in the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918, in which a million young Americans died within hours of infection, one of the reasons for the high death rate was because treatment with large doses of aspirin at the time actually contributed to the high death rate due to the creation of pulmonary edema (a side effect of Aspirin).
Antibiotics are totally (100%) ineffective against viral infections.
I do hope that I am wrong, and that the infection will “run its course” and disappear before it mutates to become a human pathogen. I fear that I am right.