PIECES OF THE PUZZLE

Mark Twain: “That's the wonderful thing about science. One gets such a wholesale return of conjecture from a trivial investment of fact”.

 Here are some facts (things that are demonstrably true, supported by evidence):

1. The US military has built up its presence in the Caribbean.
   The US has deployed about 10,000 troops, a carrier strike force led by the USS Ford, warships, destroyers, a cruiser, amphibious assault ships, fighter jets, spy planes, helicopters and tilt-rotor aircraft.
2. Hegseth has redeployed US military personnel from Eastern Europe to the Caribbean.
3. Hegseth issued a directive to the American Press that they needed to sign a pledge not to gather or use unauthorized material, including unclassified information, in exchange for press access to the Pentagon, which resulted in the vast majority of the American and International Press corps leaving the Pentagon. This, at least, makes it more difficult for reporters to obtain information about current administration policies and plans.
4. Hegseth has issued an order directing military officials to sign NDAs with respect to the Trump Administration’s strategy and actions in the Caribbean and Latin America. This is consistent with the above, decreasing the ability of the American public to receive timely information on policy and plans, even if those policies and plans are not confidential.
5. Alvin Holsey has chosen to leave his position as head of the US Southern Command a year early over his concerns about Secretary Hegseth’s policy and mission in the Caribbean.
6. The US has destroyed 14 boats in the Caribbean with only accusations that those boats were carrying drugs. (Recall that NO Fentanyl has been associated with smuggling from Venezuela; the prime drug coming from there is Cocaine.)
7. Trump has now called for covert CIA actions inside Venezuela.
8. Trump last week said that: We are certainly looking at land now, because we have got the sea very well under control.
9. Of the 3 survivors from these attacks, none has been prosecuted by the US government. They have been repatriated to their home countries which have also not prosecuted them.
10. Trump commented on the Iraq War:

• "We should have kept the oil when we got out.”
• "I always said: take the oil".
• "It used to be, 'To the victor belong the spoils,' Now, there was no victor there, believe me. There was no victor. But I always said: take the oil".
• "I still can't believe we didn't take the oil from Iraq".
• "We would leave a certain group behind, and you would take various sections where they have the oil".
• "So, we should have kept the oil, but OK. Maybe we'll have another chance".
• "I have long said that we should have kept the oil in Iraq. I said, 'Keep the oil. Keep the oil. Keep the oil. Don't let somebody else get it'". 

 

11. Trump signed an agreement with Ukraine, the “US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund”, which gives the US preferential access to crucial minerals including lithium, graphite, titanium, rare earths, uranium, gas and oil. Ukraine will contribute 50% of the revenue from the exploitation of these items to the fund, which will be controlled by the US.
12. Venezuela has THE LARGEST oil reserves of ANY country in the world.
    Venezuela has reserves of 300 billion barrels, which is 30 billion barrels more than Saudi Arabia (number 2) and twice the amount of Canada (number 3). 
    The US has reserves of only 34 billion barrels of oil.

Now, with those facts, what can we surmise to be the Trump administration strategy in the Caribbean?

 

An aside:
Capitalism vs. Mercantilism.

I have written about this in the past.  In the times of the American Revolution and the construction of the US Constitution, Capitalism did not exist.  It wasn’t until almost 50 years later that the Supreme Court ruled that private companies could exist and individuals could invest in them.  The NYSE, created in 1792 by 24 stockbrokers to trade a total of 5 securities, and strictly between themselves, did not become an actual public exchange until 1817.

 

The concept of a “free market” was advanced by Adam Smith in his book “The Wealth of Nations”, which was published in 1776.   At the time of the creation of the US constitution, economists describe the existent economic system as “mercantilism”.

 

Whereas Capitalism prioritizes private profit through free markets, competition, private ownership, and financial investments shared by the public, mercantilism prioritizes national wealth and power through state-controlled trade.  It presumes that “wealth” is a fixed amount worldwide, and that power is attained through the accumulation of that wealth, particularly with respect to precious metals, minerals and natural resources.   Mercantilism requires heavy government intervention to maximize exports and minimize imports.  Capitalism advocates for minimal governmental involvement to allow the market to set prices through competition, supply and demand.

 

Mercantilism presumes that national wealth and power can be accumulated through favorable balances of trade and the accumulation of mineral resources through conquest or colonization.   Capitalism presumes profit and wealth will be accumulated by individuals and/or the companies they control.

 

Mercantilism requires heavy governmental controls and regulations. These controls include high tariffs, monopolies and restrictions on imports to benefit the nation.

Capitalism focuses on individual freedom and little governmental involvement.  Efficiency is shaped by free trade, competition, and open markets.

 

Back to the Puzzle.

I think that one can see that Mr. Trump’s actions fall closer to the model of Mercantilism than Capitalism.   His desire to acquire Greenland for its natural resources (including rare earth metals) and Canada for its oil reserves fit this model.

 

His tactics mimic those of mercantilists.

 

If we understand Mr. Trump as believing in the mercantilist model, then the actions in the Caribbean make total sense.  A 21^st Century version of colonialism is to either acquire sources of natural resources by buying land from a foreign country (Greenland), annexing adjacent countries as part of the US (Canada), or through “negotiated” deals which establish US dominance over those mineral rights and natural resources (Ukraine).

 The clear value of acquiring Venezuelan oil reserves becomes obvious. 

 There are multiple ways to obtain those reserves.  The US could negotiate a deal with Maduro to allow him to stay in power if he cedes rights to the US for developing and “sharing” in the profits from, and use of those oil reserves.  The US could excise Maduro and replace him with a “friendly” government that would do the same.  Or the US could invade Venezuela and make it a US territory similar to Puerto Rico, Samoa, or Guam.

 I believe that we will see one of those strategies emerge over the upcoming weeks.  There will be two indicators of what is upcoming, public relations, and triggering violence.

 In the first case we will begin to see more Republican leaders, right-leaning news outlets, administration sources, and social media posters begin to raise the volume on the illegitimacy of Maduro, his ties to “narco-terrorism”, and how the Venezuelan people are being harmed.  As that volume increases we can forecast increasing likelihood of an invasion.

 In the second case we may see real or attributed violence.  The missile attacks on boats in the Caribbean are dramatic.  They may be against international law, or US law; I will not presume to defend them.  (I do wonder why, if we can see these boats from the air, or through satellites, why we don’t just track them to where they land in the US and then arrest both the people on the boats and the people that meet the boats?).   Nevertheless, the attacks may be designed specifically to provoke a response from Venezuela, with the intent to use that response as an excuse to go to war. 

 Failing to elicit a response to the attacks on boats, it is conceivable that the current administration might create a false flag event by staging an alleged attack on one of the US naval vessels in the Caribbean and using that as an excuse to go to war.

 Finally, an act of “terrorism” inside the US, that could be attributed to Venezuelan supporters could also be used as a determinant in creating a need to go to war.