Part I: The destruction of international confidence in the American Constitutional Process
We all learned in Civics Class that the American Constitution provides for 3 separate branches of the government, the Judicial, the Legislative and the Executive. Of these, the Congress and the Executive are designed to have cyclical turnover. The true miracle of the American system occurred when George Washington stepped down and allowed the system to transition to a new President.
The Founding Fathers had a revolutionary concept: the American government is continuous, the Executive is temporary. Unlike autocracies, kingdoms and dictatorships, the “word” of the American government continues through the term of the current Presidency. This basic convention that the word of the American government continues through different administrations is what allows our international partners to trust in our system.
Mr. Trump has challenged that basic concept. He has unilaterally withdrawn from the Paris Accords, from the Iran Nuclear development deal, from NAFTA, from TPP; he has threatened to withdraw from the WTO, the Intermediate Range Nuclear Weapon agreement with Russia, the international courts and NATO; he has undermined or destroyed trade deals with our allies in Europe, in Japan, in South Korea and other countries; he has attempted to eliminate our immigration, asylum and refugee laws.
What is the effect of all of these actions? Whether you agree or disagree with the strategies or believe that the outcome will eventually be worth the tactics, the irreversible consequence is that the world has now been told that no agreement, no deal, no pact, no treaty can survive a single Presidency. No longer can a foreign country believe that the American Government’s word supersedes that of an individual President. If Mr. Trump can do away with all previous deals, then the next President can do away with all of Mr. Trump’s deals.
How can you, as a foreign country believe that negotiations with the USA are in good faith, now knowing that any agreement has an implicit sunset at the end of any current administration?
The legacy of Mr. Trump is the irreversible destruction of any International faith in the basic structure of the American system of government.
Part 2: International Tribalism
It is no secret that American politics have become tribal. There has been plenty of discussion relating to the problems in our country regarding party-centered voting and the surrounding issues that have changed the traditional virtue of compromise, personified by the acknowledged American hero, Henry Clay into a badge of dishonor that partisans use to vilify a politician for “compromising” their core principles. We see the consequences of tribalism around the dinner table where politics has become a topic to be avoided; where one religious group is pitted against another; where borderline individuals cross the line of fair discourse and resort to violence; where federal and state legislators sue each other to enforce their views.
The potential disaster of the Trump administration is not domestic tribalism. We can change that by electing better people. No, the true disaster is International Tribalism. So, where is the evidence? What is the history? What are the long-term consequences?
Mr. Trump has done several things, unilaterally and with the cooperation of his state department, commerce department and treasury secretary.
Mr. Trump has shown a remarkable empathy to the most autocratic leaders in the world; Mr. Putin, Mr. Duterte, Mr. Kim, Mr. Erdogan. It is not that he has endorsed them; however his praise of their “strong leadership”, of their internal popularity, of his “love” with them personally, while not directly accompanied by a clear and distinct criticism of their activities and policies sends a very strong message to the other countries of the world.
Imposition of Tariffs, breaking trade deals, pulling out of international agreements, refusing to engage with multi-national organizations, changing the narrative about being a “shining city on the hill” for refugees and immigrants and refusing to join new economic coalitions like TPP have all contributed to an “us versus them” coloration to American international policy.
We are the single greatest country in the world. We dominate the economics of the world. We spend more on defense than the next 10 countries combined. We have technological superiority to every country in the world. This power means that every country in the world looks to us as an example of how to relate to other countries.
Finally, the recent declaration by Mr. Trump that he is a “Nationalist”, combined with the previous statements that he believes in “America First” and the argument that all trade deals should be viewed through the prism of which country wins and which loses based on the trade balance or imbalance, has cemented the American international doctrine that the world should all be “Me First!”
I do not know how Mr. Trump has come to this conclusion. The superficial evidence is that he is not well read and not well educated. He has an undergraduate degree from the University of Pennsylvania, having spent his Junior and Senior years there after the first two years at Hofstra. He has no post-graduate education in any field. And it is not clear that he takes learning from his advisors with great seriousness.
The consequence of this is that he does not appear to have a good grasp on the historical efforts for peace after WWII. In the 40’s and 50’s, having lived in a world that had seen two world wars in the space of 30 years, politicians and scholars devised a system of institutions that were designed to create an atmosphere that would insure peace. The Marshall plan rebuilt Europe. The United Nations provided a forum in which countries could try to work together and at the least, let off steam. The WTO created a mechanism to allow for international economic synchronization. The International courts provided a mechanism for dispute resolution. NATO provided a joint military organization with a combined leadership and mutual commitment to defense.
None of these institutions are perfect; far from perfect in fact. And we can argue back and forth about the costs, the biases, the effectiveness, the equality, etc. However, the net effect of these institutions was to create an integrated international system in which each country was dependent is some respect on all of the others. For the first time in 500 years, European countries were linked, not by royal marriage or by conquest, but by mutual economic, military and diplomatic interests.
The net result has been peace on a scale never seen before in the world for a longer time than ever seen before. Even in a world with the most horrific and destructive weapons and weapon systems ever conceived by Man it is almost inconceivable to envision France going to war with Spain or Germany, or the USA going to war with Mexico or Canada.
The great irreversible disaster of the Trump administration is to break down or break apart these institutions. If MAGA means to bring us back to the international environment of 1925, we are placing the world in an environment that is poised for war. If we charge every country in the world to endorse “Me First!” we are encouraging every country to insulate themselves from the rest of the world, to threaten their competitors and to begin to think about arming themselves in defense of those competitors. Autocrats will seize on this opportunity by praising Mr. Trump and his “visionary policies” to extend their power.
International Tribalism does not work. It hasn’t worked in the Middle East; it hasn’t worked in Europe; and it hasn’t worked in Central America. Simply vilifying “Globalism” through invective and sloganeering does not reverse the extraordinary contributions to world stabilization resulting from Globalism. The destruction of international integration for the short-term gain of political jingoism is a path jeopardizing our economic security, our safety and the future of the world.