We can celebrate the continued downward trend in COVID related deaths and hospitalizations. Although we are not down to numbers low enough to be ignored, we are in a period in which the likelihood that if you become infected, and the need for hospitalization is dramatically reduced.
Unfortunately, I believe that this is not the end of the battle, just a change in battle lines.
As I have said many times, COVID-19 is NOT a respiratory disease like colds or influenza, it is an oxygen-transport disease which requires oxygen support during acute illness. It can and does result in damage to those tissues that require a lot of oxygen, namely the heart, the brain and developing fetuses.
As we move forward in time, those oxygen deficits will begin to result in statistical increases in poor health outcomes for those who had been infected with COVID-19.
Here is a list of conditions that we might want to watch over the next few years.
HEART DISEASE DEATHS
COVID causes a loss of oxygen to heart tissue. This can result in decreased heart function or in creating conditions that can lead to cardiac disease at a much earlier age than previously seen.
The chart shows the trend in heart disease death rates over the past 2 decades. We can see that the death rate had shown a constant decrease from about 20 per 100,000 to about 160, a decrease of almost 40%.
We would expect this trend to continue, resulting in a rate of under 150 per 100,000 in the next few years. If COVID long-term effects on heart tissue is a real phenomenon, we will see an increase in heart disease related deaths over the next 10 years.
STILL BIRTH
We can expect that COVID-19 resulted in decreased oxygen to developing fetuses, a condition that can result in natural termination of a pregnancy.
This chart shows the stillbirth rate over the past 30 years. We need to watch the upcoming years to see if the downward trend continues, or if the slight increase in numbers seen in 2020 continue to rise.
The latest analysis suggests that there has been no effect of COVID-19 on Fetal Mortality.
DEMENTIA
As with heart disease, COVID-19 has caused damage to the brain. We may expect that over the next decade we will begin to see an increase in early dementia deaths as a result of this damage.
This chart shows the death rate from dementia over the past 20 years and we can use it as a predictor of future death rates.
