Why Trump, Alabama and Dorian is such an important event
The last few days have seen a fascinating glimpse into Donald Trump. It is a perfect, concise and encapsulated example of why those of us who oppose the current president are so concerned and fearful of what he might do in the future.
Here is a quick recap:
- Sunday: He tweets that “In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!”
- Then he confirms that in a News conference later in the day in which he says that he just learned of it that morning.
Next, the National Weather releases a statement “Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Alabama. The system will remain too far east.”
- Three days later Trump shows an altered map with a hand-drawn black marker showing a cornier of Alabama in the “cone of uncertainty”
Then he shows a map from the Thursday preceding his Sunday statement showing a potential of strong winds over Alabama. The area over the southeast corner of Alabama, wind probability maps (5-10%, and 0% after these) and mixed them up with the cone.
- Then he claims that he was “right” all along and that the fake media had been the real culprits here.
- Then on Friday he finally gets someone in the White House, this Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Adviser Peter Brown to issue a statement:
"The president's comments were based on that morning's Hurricane Dorian briefing, which included the possibility of tropical storm force winds in southeastern Alabama."
So, what do we see here:
It seems that at the morning briefing on Sunday Mr. Trump was given information on Dorian. Speculating here, and trying to give him at least some credit, he may have been half listening or skimming the written report and may have confused “Bahamas” with “Alabama”. So, he goes to his twitter and tweets.
The National Weather Service has to immediately correct the news because they are concerned about potential panic in Alabama. After all, with storms like these they get detailed reports and maps 4 times each day.
Trump then must react. He is personally incapable of admitting any mistake. Most of us could have sloughed this off with a bit of an apology and maybe a little self-deprecating humor, but for our president, he cannot, and will not ever admit a mistake because that would show weakness.
Therefore, he must double down. It takes him three days, but then he digs up a map, adds his own extra extension and claims that this shows that Alabama could be hit. He also finds one projection, issued 3 days BEFORE his first tweet that shows that there might be a 15% chance of high winds in a corner of Alabama. He uses this to support his error.
Finally, when the news media, including his pet FOXNews sees through this charade, he forces a low level Homeland Security advisor to issue a statement that he was right.
I would not be surprised to see him fire the NWS people who issued the correction immediately after his tweet. He cannot stand insubordination, contradiction or correction. Let’s see whose neck is severed at the NWS in the next few weeks
What is the essence of this story? First, when the president makes a mistake, no matter how insignificant, he is incapable of backing off. He doubles down again and again no matter how silly and transparent his methods are.
What were the consequences of this act? Many citizens of our country, those that the president said should be CAREFUL and prepare, those in Alabama where there was absolutely no danger, those citizens were incited to panic for no reason other than the ego of the president. I wonder how many of those Alabamians even saw the immediate correction from the National Weather Service or chose to believe the president rather than the experts. How much did that cost those people? How many people acted on the bad information?
Actions have consequences.
So, why is this incident so apocryphal? Because, it foreshadows potential future incidents with far more grave consequences. What would happen if he were to make the same sort of misread when being briefed on the Mid-east? What if the report was that Iraq had launched a major land attack on …, and he misread it as Iran had launched…? He has shown that he would respond immediately against Iran and then continue to double down that he was, in fact right. He would create false maps, data and statements; he would chastise anyone who contradicted him; he would force members of his administration to issue statements supporting him.
It is critical that our president be able to admit errors. This president has shown that he cannot.