It seems to me that one way to understand Mr. Trump is through the following quotation:
When Mr. Trump spoke at CIA headquarters this year, he said: “The old expression, ‘to the victor belong the spoils.’ I always used to say, keep the oil. I wasn’t a fan of Iraq. I didn’t want to go into Iraq. But I will tell you, when we were in, we got out wrong. And I always said, in addition to that, keep the oil. Now I said it for economic reasons…So, we should have kept the oil. But okay. Maybe you’ll have another chance. But the fact is, should have kept the oil.”
I think this philosophy is consistent with his actions in many situations.
Suppose you place tariffs on foreign countries because you are a stronger economy, and they need you for their business. When they “concede” by agreeing to tariffs lower than those you originally imposed but kept at a level above what had previously existed, then you win. And when you win, you are entitled to those additional monies collected (that is why you view the situation as the other country paying the tariffs). You also collect other concessions including commitments for those countries to “invest” large sums of money in the US. It is not necessary for those countries to have had a trade surplus with the US for this strategy to play out (see Brazil and Switzerland).
Suppose you negotiate a truce between two adversarial countries by using the threat of tariffs on each to force a settlement. If the peace deal is struck, you get economic value from each that you may not have had before.
Suppose you negotiate a deal in Gaza. Israel won. Therefore, they are entitled to the spoils from the war. This includes forcing their rule on the conquered territory, and the economic assets of the coastal areas in which other countries can invest to create profitable resorts, run by the Israelis and taxed by the Israelis. It may require that Israel or a tacet international administrative council control Gaza and “temporarily” abolish voting rights there.
Which brings us to Ukraine. From Mr. Trump’s view, Russia has effectively won the war. They conquered territory and continue to make land advances. Those advances can be expected to continue whether incrementally or in larger chunks. It is not conceivable that Ukraine will reverse those advances. Deaths will continue to mount unless a peace is attained. If Russia has won the war, they are entitled to the “spoils”, meaning they should get the land they want even if it includes areas that they have not yet taken. They should get an effective disarmament of Ukraine by limiting the size of the army, prohibiting any real security protections by prohibiting NATO membership or foreign troops on the soil.
From Mr. Trump’s perspective, it is time for Ukraine to admit that it has lost the war, repay the US for the funds and materiel sent to them by ceding 50% of the profits from their own natural resources, thank everyone for their help, and supplicate themselves.
We can expect to hear similar arguments about Venezuela. We won. We ousted Maduro, and now we are entitled to the natural resources of the country. We will either install a caretaker government or empower a friendly new leader. We will reestablish American companies’ management of the oil reserves and sign an agreement with the new Venezuelan government to share in the mineral resources of the country.
This has nothing to do with drug trafficking; if it did, we would topple the governments of Columbia and Mexico.
It has nothing to do with American national security; Venezuela is 1,500 miles from the US border, and if it did, we would have ousted the government in Cuba.
It has nothing to do with autocratic, unelected leaders; if it did, we would be threatening Erdogan in Turkey, Orban in Hungary, MBS in Saudi Arabia, Modi in India, Bukele in El Salvador, Lukashenko in Belarus, not to mention Putin or Xi.
It DOES reflect the new Trump Doctrine, that ANY country in the western hemisphere should be considered under the aegis of the US, and subject to American military oversight.
This view of regional hegemony seems to be central to Mr. Trump’s view of the world. The US should have control of the western hemisphere; China should have control of Asia; Russia should have control of the Baltics; the EU should have control of Europe; Africa is up for grabs, but the US is not interested - we have stopped our soft support of African nations, leaving a void to be filled by others.
We can see this playing out in Ukraine, where Mr. Trump’s actions disclose his understanding that Mr. Putin needs to control those countries along his border. We can see this playing out in China, where Mr. Trump’s actions seem to disclose his understanding of China’s desire to annex Taiwan, Nepal, and Korea. And we can see this playing out in Europe, where Mr. Trump’s actions seem to disclose his desire for the EU to stand on its own two feet, economically, militarily (through NATO) and politically.
We will better understand these motivations as the spin is outputted on the attacks inside Venezuela.